As the baseball offseason looms, the market for elite starting pitchers is heating up, with Max Fried and Blake Snell emerging as two of the most compelling figures under the microscope. Both pitchers boast unique résumés and distinct strengths, promising to draw significant interest and financial offers from teams across the league. However, their paths to stardom have diverged in ways that make each a unique asset to consider.
Max Fried: Consistency and Reliability
Max Fried has carved out a reputation as a model of consistency and reliability on the mound. With a career ERA+ of 140 across almost 900 innings, Fried has established himself as a stalwart in any starting rotation. Even in his most challenging seasons — such as when he was limited to 14 starts due to injury — Fried has managed to maintain commendable performance levels, with his worst WAR season as a full-time starter being 2.6. It’s no wonder that many analysts, including Matt Snyder, consider Fried to be "the much safer option" and "a much more steady presence."
The consensus among experts is clear: Fried’s track record of steady performances makes him a desirable and dependable choice for any team looking to bolster their pitching staff. His ability to minimize risks associated with command issues avoids what R.J. Anderson describes as "command-related crater risk." Such assurance makes Fried particularly appealing, especially when considering long-term investments.
Blake Snell: Potential and Peril
On the other hand, Blake Snell is characterized by his dual nature — immense talent coupled with inherent variability. Snell, having already won two Cy Young awards, exemplifies the high-reward aspect of his game. In the words of Mike Axisa, "When he's on, he's as good as any pitcher in the game." Notably, Snell's ability to miss bats positions him as "one of the game's premier bat-missers," further elevating his attractiveness to teams seeking to maximize their strikeout capabilities.
However, Snell’s career has also been punctuated by high walk rates and fluctuating WAR outputs, aspects that instill a level of unpredictability. As Dayn Perry notes, it is "hard for me to overlook his chronic command-and-control issues." These persistent concerns can pose challenges for suitors who prioritize stability and consistent output in their starting rotation.
The Financial Implications
Despite their differences in style and reliability, Fried and Snell are expected to command substantial financial offers in the market. The scarcity of elite starters only amplifies their worth. As R.J. Anderson speculates, "I suspect they might have a similar financial outlook based on their ages and track records." This similarity in value raises intriguing questions for teams regarding which player to prioritize, considering that both pitchers are approaching the pivotal years in their careers.
The Decision for Teams
The choice between Fried and Snell thus boils down to a fundamental strategic decision. Teams with a greater appetite for risk and a penchant for high-powered performance may be more inclined to pursue Snell, embracing both his extraordinary potential and the challenges it entails. Conversely, franchises valuing consistency might find Fried’s dependable nature more appealing, especially those averse to gambling with southpaw pitchers in the latter stages of their careers. As Snyder succinctly puts it, "Gimme the safe option in Fried."
Ultimately, the pursuit of either pitcher requires careful consideration of team strategy, risk tolerance, and long-term goals. As the offseason progresses, the decisions surrounding Fried and Snell will undoubtedly shape the dynamics of pitching staffs across the league.