The Diamondbacks are set to clash with the Cubs at the storied Wrigley Field this afternoon, in what promises to be an engaging encounter. The game kicks off at 2:20 PM ET, with the Diamondbacks entering the fray as slight money line favorites at -106.
On the mound for the Cubs will be Justin Steele, who has been a steady presence for the team this season. Steele has started 14 games, boasting a record of 2-3 and an impressive 2.71 ERA. Notably, he has delivered eight quality starts, including his most recent outing where he hurled seven scoreless innings. Despite showing some vulnerability at home with a 3.16 ERA compared to his road ERA of 2.96, Steele remains a formidable opponent for any lineup.
Opposing Steele, the Diamondbacks will rely on Ryne Nelson, who comes into the game with a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA. Nelson’s WHIP stands at 1.42 with a batting average against of .296. While his numbers may suggest inconsistency, Nelson has shown resilience recently, making six consecutive starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. Such tenacity could prove vital against a surging Cubs offense.
Diamondbacks’ Streak and Offensive Strengths
The Diamondbacks, with an overall record of 49-48, find themselves second in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. Their recent form away from home has been impressive; they've secured a 4-1 record in both straight-up and run line results over their last five games on the road. The team also has the second-best run average in MLB, with a notable five runs per game.
Key contributors to Arizona's offensive firepower include Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, with 22 and 19 homers respectively. Despite a heart-wrenching 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays, a game in which they squandered a seven-run lead, the Diamondbacks have bounced back, winning their last two road games with fortitude.
Cubs’ Resurgence and Key Performances
Meanwhile, the Cubs, holding a 47-51 record, find themselves fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games adrift of the Brewers. Their recent form has been encouraging, highlighted by a 7-3 mark over their past ten games. At home, they've mirrored this success with a 4-1 record in their last five outings at Wrigley.
The Cubs’ offense, averaging 4.2 runs per game, is anchored by hitters like Nico Hoerner, who has batted an impressive .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, with three homers in his past eight matches. The Cubs' overall batting average stands at .235, reflecting a team capable of clutch hitting when it matters most.
Betting Lines and Expectations
Today's game comes with an over/under line set at 7.5 runs, a figure that carries significant weight given both teams' recent performances. The Diamondbacks have seen 84.5% of their games surpass this mark, holding a 6-4 record when the line is set at 7.5. Similarly, for the Cubs, 67.3% of their games have exceeded the same line, with a 12-10 record in such scenarios.
Pitching projections suggest Justin Steele is expected to notch six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is slated for four. Steele is also anticipated to concede fewer runs than Nelson, which could be a crucial factor in determining the game's outcome.
Predicted Outcome
Given the strengths and recent forms of both teams, a narrow victory for the Diamondbacks is predicted, with a final scoreline of 5-4. However, the Cubs’ recent resurgence, coupled with Steele's consistent pitching, ensures that this afternoon’s matchup will be closely contested and thrilling for fans on both sides.