The New York Yankees are teetering on the edge of the postseason race, holding a respectable 73-53 record as of the latest standings. Despite sitting just a half-game behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East, their performance since July 1 has been underwhelming. The Yankees have managed a 19-21 record, while the Orioles have fared slightly better at 21-22. This race is critical, as the Yankees possess the third-best record in the league but find themselves needing to overtake Baltimore to solidify their playoff position.
One of the key stories this season has been the performance of Clay Holmes, the Yankees' closer, who leads MLB in blown saves. Holmes' performance has been shaky, with his latest stumbled save coming during the Little League Classic against the Cleveland Guardians, a game the Yankees lost 9-5 in 12 innings. Holmes' tenth blown save this season is the highest for a Yankee since Dave Righetti's 13 blown saves in 1987. With a 2.82 ERA and a ground ball rate of 67.6% over 40 innings, Holmes has shown promise, but his inconsistency has been a thorn in the Yankees' side.
Holmes' journey with the Yankees began when he was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021. However, this season has seen several critical moments where he faltered. On April 3, he was hit with a blown save, and on May 20, he surrendered a three-run lead against the Seattle Mariners. Another costly moment came on July 5, when he gave up a game-tying two-run homer to Masataka Yoshida. In games where Holmes has blown a save, the Yankees hold a 3-7 record, indicating the significant impact of his performance on the team's outcomes.
On top of these struggles, Holmes has faced more left-handed hitters than right-handed ones, contributing to his challenges on the mound. Despite his shortcomings, Yankees manager Aaron Boone has expressed confidence in Holmes' ability to rebound. "He’s been unfortunate. He hasn’t made a pitch in a couple of spots where he could, but based on the way he’s thrown the ball the entirety of this year, really you would expect him to have success moving forward. That’s my expectation," Boone stated.
The Yankees' bullpen is by no means weak. It ranks in the top 10 for ERA and win probability added, with setup man Luke Weaver emerging as the most reliable reliever this season. The team also made strategic moves at the trade deadline, acquiring Mark Leiter Jr. from the Chicago Cubs to bolster their bullpen. However, Leiter's performance has been uneven, allowing seven runs and 23 baserunners over 9 1/3 innings since joining the Yankees.
Given the high stakes, Boone has indicated a flexible approach to managing save situations moving forward. "I will leave [save situations] open and try and put these guys in places where they match up really well," remarked Boone. This strategy will be critical as the Yankees aim to overtake the Orioles and secure their place in the postseason.
The closing weeks of the season will be pivotal for the Yankees, and Holmes' ability to regain his form could very well determine their fate. With strong support from the bullpen and strategic adjustments from Boone, the Yankees have the tools needed to push through their current standing and make a strong playoff run.