Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team leans heavily on strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. With the 2023-24 NBA season approaching, managers should be armed with crucial information about key players to make informed decisions during their drafts. This season offers a fascinating mix of stars, aging legends, injury-prone talents, and emerging young players, all of whom could tilt the scales in fantasy leagues.
Reliability vs. Potential
Consistency is often the keystone of a successful fantasy basketball team, and while the top draft picks usually deliver, finding value in later rounds can be far more rewarding. Joel Embiid, projected to average more than 60 fantasy points per game, is the epitome of a high-risk, high-reward player. He averaged 61 fantasy points per game last season, an impressive tally. However, his durability remains a concern, given that he's never played more than 68 games in a season and played only 39 games last season. Managers must weigh the potential of his stellar performance against the risk of his availability.
Nikola Jokic stands in stark contrast to Embiid’s volatility. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in his career, making him one of the most reliable players in fantasy basketball. His consistency is invaluable, ensuring managers can count on robust contributions throughout the season.
Veteran Vigilance
LeBron James and Anthony Davis present another set of intriguing options. LeBron, turning 40 this season, played 71 games last season, but his fantasy value takes a hit considering he averaged just 52 games over the previous three seasons. Davis, who played 76 games last season, has the added burden of history; he averaged only 44 games over the three seasons prior. His ability to maintain health across consecutive seasons remains unproven, having played more than 70 games in consecutive seasons just once in his 12-year career.
Kevin Durant is another veteran whose performance is as alluring as it is risky. Entering his 18th NBA season, Durant played 75 games last year and remains a force on the court. However, managers drafting Durant will need to consider the cumulative wear-and-tear over his lengthy career as a potential downside.
Injury-Prone Stars
Ja Morant missed a staggering 73 games last season due to suspension and injury. Turning 25 this season, his youth indicates a high ceiling, reinforced by his averages of 26.7 PPG, 7.5 APG, and 5.8 RPG over the past three seasons. While his production is tantalizing, his absence rate demands caution from fantasy managers.
Kyrie Irving fits a similar profile. Despite impressive averages—26.7 PPG on 49.3% shooting, 39.9% from three, and 91.2% from the free-throw line over the last five seasons—he averaged just 44.2 games per season during the same period. Last season, Irving ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game but only 47th in total fantasy points, highlighting the impact of his frequent absences.
Zion Williamson, another high-risk, high-reward pick, has played just 90 out of 236 possible regular-season games between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons. His average of 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG during that span attests to his talent. Last season, he showed flashes of his potential, with a 27.1 PPG average over a 10-game stretch late in the season before playing a career-high 70 games. Yet his spotty availability makes him a particularly risky draft selection.
Balancing Performance and Health
Kawhi Leonard offers yet another case study in balancing elite performance with health concerns. Playing 68 games last season, Leonard finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, hitting fantasy playoffs with Leonard could be derailed by his health; he missed 12 of the Clippers’ last 14 games, including key playoff matchups, due to knee issues.
In navigating the complexities of building a formidable fantasy basketball team, managers need to strike a balance between chasing high fantasy points and mitigating the risk of player absences. Veterans like Jokic and emerging stars like Morant shine bright but carry disparate risks. Meanwhile, perennial all-stars such as LeBron, Davis, and Durant offer high ceilings but come with their own sets of questions. As draft day approaches, it's crucial to delve into each player's history and weigh their potential contribution against the likelihood of enduring a full season. The ultimate goal is not just a powerful lineup but one that can withstand the rigors of an entire NBA season, delivering consistent returns right through to the championship.