A Grim Statistical History
When it comes to the Stanley Cup Final, teams that establish a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven series are almost guaranteed victory. Historically, 27 out of 28 teams have secured the championship under such circumstances. The only exception occurred in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs orchestrated a remarkable comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
Out of these 28 series, a staggering 20 ended in sweeps. The Florida Panthers are on the brink of achieving their first sweep in the Stanley Cup Final since the Red Wings dispatched the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. While the Edmonton Oilers hope to extend the series with a victory in Game 4, it’s worth noting that 25 of those 28 series were concluded in no more than five games.
Despite these grim statistics, the Oilers maintain their belief in a remarkable turnaround.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are experiencing significant difficulties against the Panthers this season, holding a 0-5-0 record. In a desperate attempt to salvage their season, Edmonton showed fight in the third period of Thursday’s game, with Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod scoring to narrow the Panthers' lead to 4-3.
Nevertheless, the most critical takeaway from Game 3 was the Oilers’ position heading into the third period, trailing 4-1 on their home ice in a must-win game against a team boasting a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
The Oilers' downfall occurred during a dismal 6:19 stretch in the second period, where Florida netted three goals. Having recently tied the game at 1-1 with a Warren Foegele breakaway goal, a turnover by Oilers’ goaltender Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko for a goal, deflating the crowd at 9:12. Florida extended their lead to 3-1 at 13:57, with Matthew Tkachuk’s solid forechecking causing a turnover that Sam Bennett capitalized on for his seventh playoff goal. Aleksander Barkov capped off the scoring at 15:31, finishing a 2-on-1 opportunity that originated deep within the Oilers' attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
For Edmonton, the mistakes have been numerous and costly, while goals from their star players have been notably absent. Secondary players like Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the back of the net. However, the Oilers' leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not registered goals in the Stanley Cup Final.
These top players also anchor Edmonton’s power play, which has struggled mightily against Florida's penalty kill. The Panthers have successfully killed off all 10 Oilers' power plays. This ineffectiveness is surprising given that Edmonton’s power play was connecting at over 37%, the best in the postseason entering this series.
McDavid, while still contributing with assists on three of the Oilers' four goals in the series, is on pace to become only the second player since 1967-68 to tally a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason. The only other player to achieve this feat was Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. Unfortunately, the supporting cast has failed to produce in the finals.
Taking Responsibility
Recognizing their predicament, the Oilers' players have displayed accountability and determination.
"Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," Draisaitl admitted.
"We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of," he added.
Goaltender Stuart Skinner also acknowledged the difficult situation, stating, "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Head coach Kris Knoblauch echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the team’s belief in their ability to overcome the deficit. "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch also addressed the importance of maintaining morale and focus: "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Looking back at the critical moments in Game 3, Skinner reflected, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl summarized the team’s challenge moving forward: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."
The Oilers face a daunting task, but if they can harness their talent and rectify their mistakes, they still have a fighting chance to make history.